We reviewed the 700-kilometre Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway not merely as a transportation link, but as a definitive, infrastructure-led catalyst for a multi-sectoral economic transformation across Nigeria’s Southern corridor. This ambitious project, cutting across nine states (Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, and Cross River), is poised to redefine capital allocation and long-term investment strategies in Nigerian real estate.

Our independent assessment evaluates the dual dynamics of immediate market disruption against the substantial long-term value creation potential in emerging corridors.

1. Project Overview and Strategic Objectives

The Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway is one of Nigeria's most significant contemporary infrastructure undertakings, estimated to cost over $747 million. The initial phase, spanning 47.47 kilometres from Victoria Island, Lagos, to the Lekki Free Trade Zone, sets a benchmark with construction costs at approximately N4 billion per kilometre.

Beyond its core function to improve inter-state accessibility, the highway is strategically aligned to:

• Decentralise Economic Activity: Shift focus and investment pressure away from over-congested economic hubs.
• Catalyse Logistics Efficiency: Reduce travel time by over 50% (cutting the Lagos-Calabar journey from an estimated 14 hours to approximately 7 hours), directly lowering supply chain costs.
• Eco-Infrastructure Mandate: Incorporate features to potentially generate carbon credits, positioning it as a sustainable infrastructure model.

2. Immediate Impact: Disruption and Eminent Domain Risk

While the project promises broad economic benefits, its execution in high-density urban zones like the Lagos shoreline presents immediate challenges, highlighting significant eminent domain risk for existing developments. The expected demolition of less than 700 houses has sparked intense debate concerning property rights, fair compensation, and community displacement.

The most notable case is the impact on the Landmark Ecosystem in Victoria Island—a critical cluster of high-value hospitality, commercial, and retail assets. This disruption demonstrates the need for comprehensive stakeholder engagement and pre-emptive resettlement/compensation frameworks to mitigate investment risk and project delays. For developers and institutional investors, the initial phase serves as a crucial case study on navigating the collision between major infrastructure and established, high-value coastal assets.

Impacted Landmark Cluster Assets (Selected Data):

 Landmark Village,  Hospitality  38,000m² 

 Landmark Tower, Commercial (Office)  6,750sqm 

 Landmark Boulevard,  Commercial (Retail)  6,500sqm 

3. Long-Term Real Estate Transformation: New Investment Corridors

The highway's completion, especially with the proposed integration of a parallel rail line, is forecast to unlock multi-billion-dollar investment opportunities by creating new, high-growth investment corridors.

A. Accelerated Property Value Appreciation

Infrastructure remains the foremost determinant of real estate value. The coastal highway will open up previously inaccessible land banks, stimulating speculative and developmental land price appreciation across all nine states. We anticipate significant uplifts in land and property values in newly connected towns, mirroring historical trends following major road and bridge construction globally.

B. Shift in Housing Demand and Suburbanisation

The 50% reduction in inter-state travel time will enable a significant suburbanisation trend. Improved accessibility will drive demand for housing in peri-urban and connecting towns, allowing professionals to live outside the core economic hubs like Lagos while maintaining urban employment. This will necessitate the expansion of the formal housing market, spurring developers to launch new gated communities, serviced apartments, and residential estates along the newly accessible spine.

C. Tourism and Hospitality Development

Access to Nigeria’s expansive coastline will create a Tourism Super-Corridor. Strategic investment in resorts, short-let accommodation, hotels, and entertainment destinations will be driven by increased traffic and reduced travel friction. Key regional tourism assets set to benefit include:

• Ondo State: Idanre Hills and Araromi Beach.
• Ogun State: Olumo Rock and cultural centres.
• Delta State: Mount Ned Nwoko Resort.

D. Expansion of Industrial and Logistics Hubs

The highway’s linkage to the Lekki Deep Seaport and the Lagos Free Trade Zone will extend the reach of industrialisation. The new infrastructure will facilitate the seamless movement of goods, pushing industrial and manufacturing activity deeper into the coastal states and creating a more robust, multi-state logistics network beyond Lagos.

4. Navigating Key Structural and Fiscal Challenges

For the long-term economic promise to be realised, stakeholders must proactively address three core challenges:

1. Sustainable Compensation and Resettlement: The successful resolution of displacement (c. 700 properties) requires a transparent, timely, and adequate compensation and resettlement framework. Failure to manage this human and legal aspect can lead to significant project delays and reputational risk.
2. Environmental Integrity: Construction and subsequent urbanisation along the delicate coastal environment pose risks of deforestation, erosion, and marine pollution. The project's stated commitment to eco-friendly design must be backed by rigorous, continuous Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and robust mitigation strategies throughout the construction lifecycle.
3. Fiscal Viability and Maintenance: At c. $747 million, the highway places a notable fiscal burden on the national debt profile. A robust, long-term maintenance culture is non-negotiable. Institutional support and a dedicated funding model (potentially through public-private partnerships or tolling/concessions) are essential to prevent rapid structural deterioration, thereby preserving the economic functionality and investment return of this critical national asset.

Final Thoughts

The Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway is a transformative infrastructure project that will fundamentally reshape the real estate and investment landscape in Nigeria’s Southern states. It represents a rare opportunity to leverage infrastructure for massive wealth creation, driving demand for all property classes, from residential and tourism to industrial and logistics.

Fortren & Company advises developers, investors, and institutions to strategically position capital now, targeting nascent markets along the nine-state corridor. With proper policy execution, stakeholder collaboration, and disciplined asset maintenance, this highway is poised to become the model for infrastructure-driven growth across the West African region.

For custom market feasibility studies, highest and best use analyses, or strategic advisory on navigating the emerging coastal real estate opportunities, please contact the Fortren & Company Market Intelligence team at team@fortrenandcompany.com.

We love your feedback. Let us know what you think about the coastal road project and its impact on the Nigerian real estate market by sending an email to team@fortrenandcompany.com. You can also join the conversation on Linkedin.

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